Podul makes landfall, Erin Angst

TL;DR: Podul makes landfall on Taiwan, Erin about halfway across the Atlantic as we read the entrails (tracks) …

Typhoon Podul made landfall on southern Taiwan (AP news story) around noon local time. Here is the forecast impact swath using my TAOS(tm) model, based on the JTWC track:

There are 43 million people in the forecast impact swath, and economic impacts on the southern of Taiwan as well as the anticipated second landfall on Fujian province should cause $1.5 to $2 Billion in impacts.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erin is about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean. Here are NHC’s Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves), but they haven’t changed since yesterday and can be summed up as “if you’re in the Caribbean, monitor, if you’re in The Bahamas Bermuda, or Southeastern US, too early to tell.” Here’s the impact estimate based on the official forecast for the next five days, showing the storm just skirting the northern Leeward Islands with minimal impacts:

Also as discussed on the blog yesterday, the track of the storm depends a ridge of high pressure across the central Atlantic. Erin is still way out there, so the really short version is check back tomorrow.

If you just have to have spaghetti with your breakfast, here is the objective track model map. As a reminder, most of the gray lines are either ensemble members (and therefore not stand-alone forecasts), or secondary models. Again, the expectation is that Erin will curve north around the edge of the ridge and away from The Bahamas and US, and that’s what the primary models show – but there will possibly be some extra sweating (not that you will notice, given the heat index value lately) until it actually turns, and of course there is always the chance the ridge will push it closer to the coast – but worrying and wearing out your refresh key won’t make it happen any sooner. If you have a hurricane plan, nothing to worry about at the moment.

The intensity forecast depends on many factors, as usual. At the moment there is a lot of dry air around Erin, as seen in this water vapor image …

however, conditions should become more favorable and Erin is expected to become a mature hurricane by the weekend. Those of you who like waves may get some from Erin.

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