Tropical storm Erin continues to track westward around a high pressure ridge. It hasn’t started significant intensification yet, but should become a major hurricane (Category 3) over the next three days as it approaches the northern Caribbean. Here are the links to the 5am ET National Hurricane Center Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the latest TAOS(tm) TC “plain language” impact swath:
The track takes the storm close to the northern Leeward Islands and skirts the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The current track and intensity forecast shows tropical storm conditions staying offshore, although there will be rain, gusty winds, and waves on the north facing shores. Although the models are in pretty good agreement, given how close the storm will come there is uncertainty as to impacts across the islands. Impacts aren’t likely to be serious, but the exact path will matter as to how scary it gets. Here is where GFS puts the storm early Sunday morning, with 20 knot (25mph) winds in the northern Virgin Islands (Anegada BVI):
Of course, everyone wants to know if Frogmore is at risk. Short answer is very unlikely. By far most scenarios curve the storm northward in between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda, with solutions closer to Bermuda more likely, there is a greater chance of wind/rain/gusty winds in the eastern Bahamas, but most of the Bahamas and US coastline will probably only have to worry about waves and rip currents …
So at this point, we’re still mostly in a wait and see mode. Those in the Caribbean should check advisories late this afternoon, and expect NHC to raise watches in the Caribbean on Friday. By then we will have a better picture of how close to the islands the storm will get, as well as the timing of the northward turn. If you have a hurricane plan, you’re in good shape.
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