TL;DR: Typhoon Podul is about 18 hours from landfall on Taiwan. Tropical Storm Erin has formed and is tracking westward, still a long way from anybody but fish.
The Tropical Weather Outlook shows Erin of course, as well as two weak invest areas that aren’t worth talking about. As for Erin, NHC has started producing Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves). I’ll save you a click: probably only a problem for Bermuda but it’s too early to tell, if you have a hurricane plan check back later in the week. (If you don’t have a plan get one!) Here is the estimated impact swath from my TAOS(tm) model, using the official forecast, which shows a classic track and intensity curve for a “Cape Verde” hurricane in August:
The main objective track models are pretty consistent through day 5, then diverge over the when and where the storm will turn north around the edge of a high pressure ridge currently across the mid Atlantic.
Am seeing lots of clickbait on Erin, with “ZOMG THE TRACK SHIFTED!!!11!” commentary. Don’t waste your time on it – it’s going to wobble back and forth some. The bottom line on the forecast is still really pretty simple. Here is the GFS forecast for next Monday (the 18th) of the main “steering level” in the atmosphere (500mb, or 18 to 20000 feet). I’ve marked Erin as well as the ridge …
The difference between the various models is largely due to how far west and how strong the ridge is during the latter part of this week and early next week. Right now, the expectation is it will cause the storm to turn north somewhere north of Puerto Rico, staying away from the Bahamas and US East Coast, but possibly impacting Bermuda.
If that changes, we will have plenty of warning.
Speaking of warning, Typhoon Podul is about 18 hours away from Taiwan this morning ET (evening in China). It should cause some wind damage and flash flooding as it treks across the south-central part of the Island, then make landfall again south of Xiamen/Shangzhou in Fujian. Impacts could easily be several billion dollars between damage and disruption from a mid-week landfall.
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Currently in Miyako-Jima on vacay (was in Ishigakijima up til this morning). For a storm a few hundred km away and just running a lateral course.. . Winds tonight are surprisingly strong.. Gusts up to 30 kph I’d guess.
Thank you.
Thank you, again!