We have a slowly strengthening tropical storm headed to China, and a developing system off of Africa, but first the selfish forecast. Lots of rain still falling across the Savannah and Bluffton/HHI areas (south of Frogmore). Downtown Savannah has picked up around 3″ over the last 24 hours …
After a brief break this morning, more will be on the way around noon, before another break this afternoon/evening. Here is the HRRR forecast radar for today:
Total rain this weekend in midtown (near Daffin Park) is around 6″. If you’ve been here any length of time you know what this means – street flooding. So be careful during the morning commute, and expect street flooding in the afternoon.
The disturbance over the Cape Verde islands is getting more organized this morning, and NHC’s 4am Tropical Weather Outlook has it has 90% chance of becoming at least a depression, with the global models spinning it up into a hurricane. Here’s the TWO data:
The track models are pretty consistent for the next 5-7 days, given the strong westerly winds blowing across the Atlantic (the outliers on the “spaghetti maps” are statistical models):
Looking at GFS in a bit more detail, long term run-to-run consistency isn’t as good as yesterday. Here is the comparison tool looking at the 00z run vs the previous run – the new run is slower, and shifted back to the west a bit. This is why you shouldn’t get too worried about longer range forecasts – the excitable (or deliberate click-baiters) post the most scary scenario, it gets lots of hits/views, and is promoted on social media because of how the algorithms work. Always be sure you have the current data.
crossing
Elsewhere, watching Henrietta north of Hawai’i as it has re-intensified, but no threat to land. Ivo is just about gone …
Finally, Tropical Storm Podul is headed towards China, forecast to make a direct hit on Taiwan as a minimal typhoon before making landfall in Fujian province:
On this forecast (from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), my TAOS(tm)/TC model estimates impacts in the $1 Billion range, mostly due to disruptions with light damage, although flash flooding in the mountains will also be a factor.
If you like this commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, BlueSky, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media dystopia.