Tropical Depression Three is still just below tropical storm strength off the coast of Georgia. Here is the link to NHC’s Key messages regarding Tropical Depression Three (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The TL;DR is the tropical storm watch has been extended in to North Carolina. The biggest threat from what will probably be called Chantal by this afternoon is rain, mostly across norther South Carolina and southern North Carolina, along with some rough surf and rip currents.
Here is the morning Infrared and water vapor satellite loops, since the sun isn’t up yet … the “jump” is when the satellite managers move the view to keep it centered on the storm.
For the Frogmore Metroplex, the southern suburbs (Savannah and south) may not even get much rain from this depending on how organized Chantal gets. On the water vapor loop (right animation), see the brown colored area on the left side? That’s dry air – and it may get pulled towards the Georgia coast. Still the usual chance for afternoon thunderstorms. The chances for rain increase as you move north, the greatest rain amounts around Myrtle Beach according to the latest forecast. But we’re talking 6-8″, not the 18″ (or more) we’ve had from some of the recent stalled tropical storms. So only the usual flash flooding areas (and, again, north of Charleston, in to southern North Carolina, fortunately not the mountains) look to get a lot of rain on this forecast.
Here is the damage swath based on my TAOS(tm) TC/Lachesis model, using the NHC forecast track and intensity. Impacts look to stay under $5 million, mostly in the form of disruptions due to the holiday weekend, a few trees down, that sort of thing.
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