TL;DR: Atlantic quiet for a few days but models show something developing (again) in the southwest Caribbean. West Pacific remains very active, with the Philippines in the risk zone for two more storms, after 14 so far this year!
The Philippines can’t get a break this year, and the northern island of Luzon has been hit especially hard. Take a look at the view from Japan’s Himawari 9 satellite this morning …
The decaying Yinxing (now off Vietnam) crossed last week, Typhoon Toraji has just passed over the Island, Tropical Depression 27 may swing by, and Typhoon Man-Yi is still a week away but headed in the same direction. So yes, people here have been hit hard (parts of North Carolina are still cut off!), but by comparison …
The Atlantic currently has no active systems now that Rafael has broken up. The Yellow Blob of Meh (which was briefly Invest AL98) is gone as well. But NHC has tagged an area of possible development that might spin up next weekend at 30% chance. I’m sure the usual suspects are breathlessly showing scary graphics from this morning’s GFS run, which shows a hurricane hitting the Tampa area next week. The European IFS model is also showing a significant storm, the morning run has it crossing the Keys and south Florida …
Just remember, Rafael at one point showed a similar level of doom for Florida, but the election angst (or a passing cold front) scared it away, and longer range forecasts this time of year are even more iffier than mid-season. Nothing actually exists yet. Presumably everyone in the hurricane prone areas of the Gulf, Florida, Frogmore Metroplex and surrounding environs (GA/SC) know what to do in a storm, so nothing to get worried about at this point.
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My bet is that it was the election angst that scared it away! 🤣🤣🤣 As always, thanks for the humor and for all the calm information.