After a break, the Atlantic hurricane season has returned in the form of Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Six. From NHC, Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here’s the IR satellite image and watch/warnings as of 7am ET:
As a reminder, a PTC is a system that technically is not a tropical cyclone, but is likely to become one before landfall. So to start the watch, warning, and preparation process, NHC starts tracking and advisories using the normal tropical cyclone (hurricane) mechanisms.
Expect the watch and warning areas will expand northward today to cover most of the Gulf Coast through Mississippi. Here is the impact swath using my TAOS(tm) TC model, based on the official forecast track:
Impacts on the Gulf Coast should be under $1 Billion on this track if nothing breaks that shouldn’t. The current forecast is for PTC6 to become a hurricane before landfall; a wobble or intensity change could cause the impact forecast to jump around a lot before landfall – there’s a lot of sensitive infrastructure in the way. As with any landfall on the Gulf coast, we’re watching the refineries carefully …
Admin note: was out on business for a couple of days, so still a bit swamped. Will do another post on the potential formation areas in the Atlantic later today, and a “Crew Car Review” of the Ford Edge SUV if I have time 😛
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