Just a quick note for those frantically hitting the refresh key over the blobs of doom on NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook …
The first thing to note is that none of them have a short term (next 48 hours) formation probability of over 10%. Second and most importantly, there are no “magic words” saying you should pay attention or do anything. The TLDR is enjoy the weekend and extra day off (for those lucky enough to have days off, which unfortunately isn’t me 🙁 ). So stop reading here unless you are bored or are at work and need something on your screen you can plausibly argue is work related or educational.
For those on the northern Gulf coast, it’s going to rain, potentially a lot. NHC has this area (tagged as “1” above and on the Tropical Weather Outlook) is potentially going to dump a lot of rain in Louisiana. Those showers offshore in the above radar view will likely move inland. It has some tropical characteristics, but is so close to or over land it probably can’t develop much unless a center of circulation forms offshore. It is expected to linger for most of the next week before being pushed out of the way or otherwise disrupted.
Which brings us to “2”, the region with the highest probability of doing something over the next week. The last three GFS model cycles have been pretty consistent with the system staying a wave or weak low pressure system (maybe becoming a depression) as it crosses the Caribbean, then exploding into a hurricane as crosses the Yucatan and enters the Gulf of Mexico. Here are the last two cycles (00 and 06z 31 August) forecast for Tuesday the 10th, in the cool slider comparison thingee:
Some earlier runs showed a major storm hitting the northern Gulf coast, and at one point it was near Tampa where it ended up. The bottom line is that we won’t know for three or four days if this is going to be a minor issue in the Caribbean, and probably a week before we will know if the Gulf is at risk. So don’t worry about it for now if you have a hurricane plan (and if you don’t, get to it!).
Elsewhere, the remnants of Shanshan are still dumping on southern Japan and causing ongoing flooding and disruption, as the death toll has been increasing (now 6). In the Arabian Sea, tropical storm Asna is entering the Gulf of Oman, causing problems for shipping as well as potentially disrupting the US Carrier Strike Groups positioned in the region as part of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, as this JTWC graphic shows (the shaded area denotes the US Navy “avoidance zone”).
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Finally made myself look up TLDR. Interesting. All this time, in my mind I was calling it The Low Down Reality. Lol. Love your no nonsense approach. Thank you!