Ernesto is just north of Puerto Rico this morning, causing gusty winds as well as dumping a lot of rain over the island and causing flash flooding and mudslides. Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Ernesto (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The radar from Puerto Rico shows a strong swirl of rain …
The satellite view just after 5am (infrarad) shows two distinct blobs of convection, but the upper one has formed over the center of circulation and is rapidly organizing.
Ernesto should become a hurricane later today, and is forecast to become a Category Three storm in two days as it treks northward towards Bermuda. Here is the TAOS(tm) TC impact model based on the NHC forecast:
As the storm departs the Caribbean over the next day, the damage assessment process begins. Physical damage across the islands should mostly be scattered, but there are problem areas. It is a national embarrassment that the Puerto Rico power grid is still a mess from Hurricane Maria, now seven years ago. That has cascading effects across the society and economy. A storm that should only cause at worst a few millions of economic impacts will likely cause fifty times that much – $200 million or more. Power is also probably out across the US Virgin Islands as wind gusts and rain sweep the area. Why isn’t this an election issue?
Next up for Ernesto is Bermuda, were a direct hit as a Category Three storm is expected. This could cause upwards of $1 Billion in economic impacts and damage, so take it very seriously. Looking into the future, it is possible a decaying/transitioning Ernesto could impact Vinland and Markland (Newfoundland and Nova Scotia). There is no serious threat to the Continental US from Ernesto, although waves from the storm will likely create hazardous surf conditions (or, if you are an experienced surfer, a playground) and rip currents across much of the Atlantic coast.
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