Hurricane Beryl is rapidly approaching Jamaica this morning, and should pass just south of the island late this afternoon. Fortunately the situation is less grim than it looked yesterday afternoon, although it is still a dangerous situation. For the official word, as usual check out the National Hurricane Center’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here is the TAOS/TC model impact swath based on the 5am Wed. morning forecast:
Beryl remains a compact storm, and the swath of catastrophically damaging winds is surprisingly narrow. It was bad luck that the islands of Grenada and the Grenadines were in it (and fortunate for Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia that this was a small storm). Yesterday, one reason the forecast was so concerning was the trends were for the swath to move over the southern part of Jamaica and the eye wall to pass over the densely populated areas of Kingston, Portmore, and Spanish Town. The current forecast (and trends) has shifted back south, and that has moved the worse of the impacts south offshore. If that holds, the damage could be well under $1 Billion dollars – still a mess, but not the catastrophic 18% to 20% of GDP that a 3.5 to $4 Billion even would inflict. As I always remind everyone, the wobbles matter. So prepare for the worst just in case.
Another factor reducing the potential impacts that the storm seems to be encountering more shear than was expected. Take a look at this morning’s IR loop (through 2:30 through 6:30am ET), and compare with yesterday …
The eye is far less well defined, and the cloud tops are much warmer, indicating the strong convection that drives the winds are decreasing. NHC’s forecast is at the higher end of the intensity forecasts at this point, so impacts in Jamaica may be even less than forecasts (but, again, prepare based on the forecast!). Will be monitoring and do an update as the storm passes the south coast this afternoon.
By tomorrow morning, Beryl should have deteriorated significantly and be passing south of the Cayman Islands, Conditions there should remain below hurricane force, but it will likely be a near thing so again prepare for a hurricane.
Admin note: am scheduled to be on Bloomberg TV around 12:30 this morning, so make sure your TV is off or tuned elsewhere 😛 .
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