Hurricane Beryl continues its destructive trek across the Caribbean, now passing near Grand Cayman. For a summary of the official forecast check NHC’s excellent Key Messages regarding Hurricane Beryl (en Español: Mensajes Claves) products.
At this hour (6am ET) the center is about 70km (43 miles) south of Georgetown, with winds of tropical storm force at the airport. In the core NHC is reporting winds of 120mph, but I suspect that’s generous and the airplane headed into the storm should give us a better estimate. It is likely parts of Grand Cayman will see minimal hurricane conditions, and $100 million in impacts are forecast. Bad, but could be a lot worse.
Looking into the future, the impact swath using the TAOS/TC model simulation of the NHC forecast shows Yucatan up next:
On this track, the important resort areas of Cancun and Playa del Carman should be just north of the damage swath. Cozumel and the central Quintana Roo coast will see the worst of it, as Beryl is currently forecast to remain a low end Category 2 storm at landfall Friday. The forecast after that is a bit fuzzier, the fast moving storm is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm and should regain some strength, perhaps making landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border. Here are the major track models this morning:
That part of the forecast will remain a bit uncertain until the storm exits Yucatan, so we won’t have much warning as to the exact landfall location as at that time the fast moving storm will only be about a day from the next landfall. Those on the Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast south to Tampico should watch carefully.
As the storm continues to cause damage and make headlines (AP article), many will want to try to help and contribute to the recovery process. Please do – and please be careful. The scams that pop up after these events are epic and disgusting. Your best bets are to stick with well known organizations, and be sure to use tools like Charity Navigator to look at things like overhead, CEO pay, etc. Several Caribbean governments have set up ways to donate, such as Grenada. Major faith based organizations like International Orthodox Christian Charities are a good choice. Personal contacts are really good if you know someone in the region. I got this note from a subscriber that might be of interest:
With regard to helping The Grenadines, Union Island caught just as much of the eye as did Carriacou, but is not getting any media attention. Union Island is a very rustic place. Jeremie Tronet has been operating a kiteboard school and hotel there for a decade or longer. He has set up a legitimate GoFundMe for Union Islanders -NOT for his private business.
This is his Go Fund Me:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-union-island-population-recover-from-the-hurricaneJeremie made it to Martinique to avoid the storm, but he has started posted stories on his instagram account with clips from Union.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/jeremietronet/3402774964476577745/?hl=en
Please consider promoting this when you send out links for aid. Otherwise, thank you for all of your work. I know it’s thankless much of the time, but I appreciate every post.
Remember how devastating these events are for small island nations – unlike the US, where natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes only impact a small fraction of the country, these often impact everyone. I discussed this on BBC World Service (link), and I talked a bit about it on Blooomberg TV yesterday (interview is at the 30 minute mark). Yeah, I look pretty rough, but I’m still recovering from surgery, and it’s been a long few days. So to end on a humorous note:
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God’s speed in your recovery and thank you for your work!