The US National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (AL012024) yesterday evening. As a reminder, NHC uses the “Potential Tropical Cyclone” designation for storms that are not currently a tropical system, but might become one and threaten land, so they start issuing advisories as a precaution to start triggering the planning and evacuation process as needed. The best summary on the system is as usual the NHC Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone One (en Español: Mensajes Claves).
PTC1 isn’t very organized. Here is what it looks like on infrared satellite just before 5am ET this morning (Tue. 18 June):
And for what it’s worth, the forecast track swath from my TAOS/TC model. I say “for what it’s worth” because since PTC1 isn’t organized, the primary risk will be from rain and flooding rather than the usual TC threats of winds and coastal storm surge:
If you are in the swath, take precautions for heavy rain or flash flooding, and keep up with local closures and advice from emergency management.
As for the “system” in the west Atlantic (the ominous yellow blob of doom aimed at the GA/SC coast on the Tropical Weather Outlook), there’s really no “there” there as of yet, and NHC has now downgraded the seven day formation chances to 20%. It’s also worth noting that they also have the chances of another storm forming in the same place as PTC1 (Bay of Campeche) at 20%. JTWC isn’t tracking anything in the Pacific, so the weather doomers will have to talk about the heat dome over the US (and be aware heat related factors actually causes more deaths in most years than tropical systems).
Of course, it is already climatalogical summer (astronomical summer starts the 20th with the Summer Solstice), so heat isn’t terribly surprising, but it is warmer than usual. Will probably try to do a post on that as we get into summer.
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