TLDR: looks like a storm might form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche). There is a disturbance forecast to form over The Bahamas that has some potential to cause angst in the US Southeast, but models are mixed and no magic words in the forecast. Here’s the details …
NHC has three areas they are looking at this morning. Moving west to east, the one off the west coast of Central America, is now below 10% chance even though it is currently the only actual “Invest area” (EP90). The most interesting is a region of disturbed weather entering the Gulf of Mexico, red in the above graphic. NHC thinks it has a 70% chance for formation, and the forecast has the “magic words” of “Interests <somewhere> should <do something>” (link goes to NHC TWO) . In this case, somewhere is “western and northwestern Gulf coasts” (Veracruz and Tamaulipas coasts of Mexico and Texas up to Corpus Christi) and do something is “monitor the progress of this system.” That means check in on the forecast in the morning and again in the afternoon to see if it is spinning up and if so, what kind of threat it might be. For advice on how to monitor these things, check out this blog post (click for link).
The third area, the bean shaped thing off the coast of GA/FL and The Bahamas, is at the moment nothing. However, a trough or low is forecast to form later this week. Model runs are not consistent this morning. The 18Z forecast yesterday evening showed a 40 or 50 knot tropical storm off the North Florida Coast (Jax/St. Augustine). The 00z forecast overnight shows … nothing at all. The 06z forecast should be available shortly, we will have to see what it shows, but given that lack of consistency it’s hard to get excited about this although I’m sure some will manage to get worked up over it. (Update: the 06z forecast now shows a tropical storm hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina, avoiding The Bahamas and GA/FL altogether!) The forecast does not have any “magic words” and formation risk is at 30%; that will be updated at 8am (with the new forecast models), will post a note if anything changes but probably no new trends will be evident until later today or tonight so don’t wear out your refresh key. In any event, any impacts are likely to be small, just rain and breezy winds somewhere between Vero Beach and perhaps as far north as the South Carolina coast, but again the chances of anything dangerous from this are slim and none (and slim is saddling his horse).
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Thank you for reliable reporting! Your sense of humor is appreciated!
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