(Update for Savannah/Coastal SC: squall line might pass between 1 and 3pm, a bit earlier than the forecast quoted below)
The Storm Prediction Center (those with memories or fans of the movie Twister know it as the Severe Storm Forecast Center or SSFC) has a broad swath of the southeast tagged as “enhanced” risk of severe weather today. So, what does that mean? For sure it means local media hype, but what about the real world? Read on to find out (as well as some brief words about the severe flooding in Southern Brazil).
Here is the updated graphic that SPC has produced explaining what these maps mean. I really like the “how bad could the worst storms be” part of the graphic – it puts things in to perspective. Note the explanation that “Enhanced” means “Similar to intense storms your area may only experience once or twice per year.”
For details in your area, the best source is the main National Weather Service web site (link). You can click on your location, with the details as well as no-drama commentary from your local NWS Forecast Office. With respect to theSavannah-Beaufort area, there will likely be a squall line of pretty strong thunderstorms moving across coast Georgia this afternoon. According to the Charleston WSFO:
A severe squall line should develop over the Fall Line, reaching the inland counties of SE GA and the SC Lowcountry just after noon time. The line of thunderstorms is anticipated to rapidly push across the forecast area, with storm motions around 45 mph. These storms should produce swaths of damaging wind gusts, likely resulting in numerous downed trees. The most vigorous updrafts should occur over SE GA, some severe hail event are possible … The leading line of strong to severe thunderstorms are timed to reach the coast between 4-6 pm. These storms will remain potentially severe as they track across the marine zones
So … definitely keep your weather radio armed just in case, and be prepared for the usual power outages, some limbs down, that sort of thing. Probably get scary for an hour then done. The storms should be fast moving but isolated street flooding in the usual spots shouldn’t be a surprise. Tomorrow morning around sunrise we may get a sequel, so be prepared for that.
There has been a persistent swath of rain across southern Brazil and Uruguay the last month or so, and catastrophic flooding is being experienced across Rio Grande do Sul, devastating much of the region. For some reason Bloomberg News talked to a local researcher about it if you’re interested (link goes to site without a paywall).
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