It’s winter (climatologically speaking, astronomically you have to wait for the 21st), and that means nor’easters. They usually start in the Gulf of Mexico, cross Florida, and travel up rapidly along the east coast of the US and Canada causing wind, rain, and typically a big snowstorm in New England. The one forming today is a bit warmer than usual, and doesn’t look to have the snowstorm part, but it’s got the other two aspects and intends to share them throughout the Southeast tomorrow (Sunday, 17 Dec) and Northeast on Monday. So, should you huddle in fear in a closet, or just break out the snacks and watch Christmas movies? Let’s take a look …
This system is forming out of several low pressure centers but should consolidate today over Florida, bringing increasing wind and rain over Georgia and South Carolina. This forecast profile, for Daffin Park in Savannah, GA generated by the point forecast app on the NWS web site, is typical of what to expect:
This graph shows from 7am this morning through 7am Monday morning. The second graph from the top is the wind. The blue line on top is wind gusts, starting this afternoon crossing the 20mph threshold and staing that way in to Monday morning. They peak out at around 35mph Sunday afternoon. Rain totals (fourth graph from the top) should be 3 to 5 inches. Flooding isn’t that likely since this should be a steady rain, but ponding and some street flooding (the usual spots) is possible. On the coast the high tide Sunday morning will be the peak, right at flood stage:
This is right at the point where there are some impacts, but nothing serious. Waves on the beach should be impressive, around 6 feet right on the coast, so avoid the water. Wind gusts on the beach will probably be 40mph or a bit higher if you want to imitate Lt. Dan and yell at the storm (not recommended).
For those further South (Brunswick), all this happens a few hours earlier; as you move north a bit later. Impacts in the Northeast will be on Monday.
There is a brief mention of the possibility of a weak tornado right on the coast (waterspout type thing moving ashore is most likely). Best to keep your weather radio on, especially on the Islands. But again these should be weak, and not widespread, if an alert sounds and you’re in a reasonably sound structure you should be fine.
So, in short, just a blustery and rainy weekend, scattered power outages are likely, but that’s about it.
As always, thank you.