Storms local and global (14 Dec 2023)

TLDR: There will be a strong nor’easter like storm moving across north Florida and offshore from Coastal Georgia this weekend. It doesn’t look to be a big deal, just a stormy and messy day on Sunday.

A complex storm system is forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. I’ve had a couple of notes that sites who depend on your angst and clicks for their revenues are playing this up and a few people are concerned. At this point there is a lot of uncertainty form a meteorological standpoint, but nothing serious to worry about. Here is what the Charleston Weather Service Forecast Office has to say this morning:

The general two solutions at this point are a more amplified and inland track of the resultant surface low pressure, while the ECMWF generally shows a slightly weaker surface low that is further east/ towards coastal SC. The current forecast follows an NBM blend with a slight weight to the more dispersive EPS. This means that precipitation will likely start Saturday night across southern GA and spread over SC through the early morning hours of Sunday. Showers and occasional thunder will then persist through most of the day Sunday. This is thanks to the waves likely merging just west of the region and taking a negative tilt as they eject northeast. All guidance does indicate some type of split jet feature also occurring, with peak rainfall totals for the event being close to the dual jet enhancement (LFQ and RRQ). As of current this looks to be somewhere over central SC and NC, but confidence on location is low this far out.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 515 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

Translation: it’s going to be windy, then rain. There are high surf advisories, as well as coastal flooding mentioned in the local Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning. However, while the surf should be impressive as the storm moves north, the water level forecasts aren’t especially threatening. Here is the forecast tide graph for Fort Pulaski this weekend:

The latest guidance for water levels of this level are: At 9.5 ft MLLW, minor coastal flooding occurs. Flooding will begin to impact Shipyard Road to Burnside Island. Parts of Ft Pulaski National Monument will begin to flood, including several trails. Flooding will also begin to impact Tybee Island including Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave. In Bryan County, water could breach docks near Ft McAllister and flooding will impact portions of Mill Hill Rd. In Liberty County, flooding impacts the Halfmoon Landing area and Cattle Hammock Rd near Bermuda Bluff subdivision.

So not terribly threatening. Yes, it will rain – maybe a couple of inches on Sunday into Sunday night. It will be pretty windy and gusty, especially close to the coast. Probably be a few scattered power outages if any tree limbs come down (or, in midtown Savannah, somebody sneezes 😛 ). Here is the “point forecast” for the area around Daffin Park in Savannah, which should be typical for most people unless you’re right on the water; inland will be less wind, the islands a bit higher. As you can see, wind gusting to the 30mph range pretty much continuously from Saturday Afternoon therough Monday.

So, again, nothing to get terribly excited about. I wouldn’t advise going out to the beach and yelling at the storm Lt. Dan style, don’t go surfing unless you’re very experienced in rough water, and for Christmas Shopping maybe best to wait until it passes, but other than that nothing dangerous.

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Later today am considering violating my public silence on geopolitical issues, maybe even Ukraine/Russia given the insane level of stupidity being spewed on this subject. According to a CNN headline yesterday, Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment. Nobody in the “business” believes this, it is just an attempt to steamroll Congress in to throwing more money into that losing enterprise to try to delay the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian government and military until after the election. It’s profoundly cynical and unworthy of our agencies to produce crap like this, much less the news media to uncritically report it given the fact it is so trivial to disprove. Worse, it’s dangerous – especially the announcement that the US is sending a high level team of advisors to essentially take control of Ukrainian Military operational planning. Smells a lot like how we got in to Vietnam …