Hurricane Lee Update (14 Sept 2023)

TLDR: Bermuda experiencing Tropical Storm conditions today, Canada and New England should get nor’easter like conditions from the decaying/transitioning Lee this weekend.

Latest Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee (en Español: Mensajes Claves) from NHC, and latest swath map generated by my TAOS/TC model looks like this:

Nothing substantively changed since yesterday on any of this so I’m just going to copypasta that and get on with my day 😛 …

Conditions along the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada will deteriorate into the weekend. The exact track landfall location probably won’t matter so much. At this point it looks like winds will be below hurricane force by then, but the wind field will be broad – more like a nor’easter than a hurricane. So you guys know what that’s like, eh?

There may be some heavy rain and flash flooding as well, especially inland.

Elsewhere, Margot is continues to be on tour in pelagic realms and is no factor. The broad low pressure area that was a mashup of AL97 and AL98 has consolidated, and NCEP is using the AL97 code for tracking it. The system should continue to develop as it moves west, most likely will follow a track similar to Lee, may impact Bermuda. Way too early to tell about Canada or the Northeastern US. Anything south of the Mason-Dixon doesn’t seem to be at any risk of this system – if that changes, which is pretty unlikely, we wwillould get plenty of warning since it’s way out there.

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