Lee to brush Bermuda

TLDR: Hurricane Lee will brush Bermuda Thursday with tropical storm conditions expected. After that landfall Sunday on the Maine/New Brunswick border, but nor’easter like conditions expected from Cape Cod to Vinland (Newfoundland).

Here are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee (en Español: Mensajes Claves). As noted the likely impacts on Bermuda will be strong tropical storm conditions, but a little wobble could bring hurricane force winds to the islands. Here is the TAOS/TC wind swath; unlike the NHC wind probability map, this includes the size of the storm, and clearly shows the radius of tropical storm conditions expanding as the storm moves north and becomes a post-tropical (extratropical).

click to embiggen.

Conditions along the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada will deteriorate into the weekend. The exact track landfall location probably won’t matter so much. At this point it looks like winds will be below hurricane force by then, but the wind field will be broad – more like a nor’easter than a hurricane. So you guys know what that’s like, eh?

Elsewhere, Margot is still on tour in pelagic realms and no factor. The broad low pressure area that is a mashup of AL97 and AL98 continues to be a blob in the east Atlantic. It should consolidate and develop as it moves west, most likely will follow a track similar to Lee, may impact Bermuda, unlikely to bother anybody else. Way too early to tell, and no reason for Canada or the US to worry about that mess at this point (or probably ever).

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