Summer Repeats (Lee, AL97 Update 15 Sept)

If this seems like one of those summer repeats on TV, it is. Nothing has substantively changed. Lee brushed Bermuda, causing some scattered power outages and some light damage but no reports of major damage. Should be calming down today. This weekend will see Lee make landfall in Atlantic Canada, with tropical storm force winds possible in New England as the storm passes offshore …

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Here are links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Lee, and Environment Canada’s hurricane warnings. Lee will be making the transition from a hurricane to an extratropical cyclone, fancy terminology for the fact it will be losing its tropical characteristics, but the things that matters are that while the winds are decreasing and should be below hurricane force before landfall, the size of the storm is growing. The bottom line is that this will feel like a warm, sticky nor’easter for the most part – same kind of widespread gusty winds with some rain and embedded thunderstorms. That means flash floods, trees down, power outages, that sort of thing, but shouldn’t be extensive structure damage except for those unlucky enough to have a tree come down on their house.

As for theEast Atlantic, Margot is continuing to do loops out there away from land. AL97 is still expected to become a depression in the next couple of days. The modeling indicates it will follow a track similar to Lee …

Intensity guidance shows AL97 becoming a hurricane in the next five days, but how intense remains to be seen. In any event, too early for anybody to worry about it, even Bermuda is a week away, and impacts to the US remain unlikely in the foreseeable future (if ever, given the modeling).

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