Update: after the 11am advisory, NHC got new data from a hurricane hunter aircraft that TD10 had tropical storm force winds, so now it’s Idalia. Rest of below still holds …
The 11am NHC update didn’t really change anything much with respect to TD 10 so you can re-read this morning’s post (link) if you want to give my site more clicks 😛 . Given the still disorganized state of the storm, the slight shift of the track to the east really isn’t important at this stage, the only real “news” is that it looks like NHC is going to raise watches along the Florida coast this afternoon or at the 11pm advisory. This makes sense to give folks in Florida two full days to prepare before conditions deteriorate.
There are other storms out there, at least one with more potential for mayhem that TD10. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Franklin is paralleling the US East Coast. It might cause problems for Bermuda on Tuesday depending on just how close it gets, and will be generating waves, erosion, and rip currents along US beaches. No ‘Key messages’ from NHC at the moment, here’s the TAOS/TC impact swath …
The biggest worry globally is Typhoon Saola. It has been doing a 360 degree turn off the Northeast coast of Luzon (Philippines), and is now strengthening and in a spiral turn that should take it over Taiwan and then in to the mainland of China …
Estimated impacts from Saola are forecast to be in the $2 Billion dollar range, with nearly 21 Million people in the tropical storm conditions or higher swath. The current forecast (at 11am ET Sunday) is a lot less dramatic than the one from six hours ago, which was more like $10 Billion in damage and over 30 million people in the wind risk zone. Still potentially a destructive storm that needs watching.
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