Have been watching the thingee hugging the Gulf coast of Texas over the last week. NHC now has it up to a 50% chance of developing tropical characteristics, but isn’t exactly enthusiastic about the system. Here’s a view of the coast this afternoon …
As you can see, not exactly organized, but maybe some elongated rotation trying to develop. We only have a few track models for the tropical doomsayers to gaze longingly at, as the system doesn’t really have much of a core to fix on. Still, here’s the map:
Most likely it will stay inland and nothing will come of it. Most of the key intensification factors we look at like wind shear, oceanic heat, humidity, etc. are unfavorable, although IF the center moves out over the Gulf, there is a very brief 6 hour window when conditions will be marginally favorable.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.
So if you are in the area, be sure to check back in tomorrow morning, when will be posting a somewhat less tired-from-travelling post.