A strong cold front is making its way across the US today, finally getting some rain here in the Southeast …
So far the rain totals seem pretty spotty, but at least here it’s finally starting to rain hard. Here is what the radar accumulations look like as of 6am this morning across the region and around the Savannah/Frogmore area zoomed in:
Today is when we are expecting more, hopefully most areas will get at least an inch today. So far, at least in midtown Savannah, none of the moisture has seeped down into the ground very far. My moisture sensor at 6″ deep is still showing nothing.
The front has dropped temperatures across the midwest. Although April was warm, there are frost and freeze warnings across the region:
This is likely to hurt a lot of crops that have already been planted. Locally we may see temperature drop below 50 inland of I-95 tomorrow morning, but it will be back in the 80’s next week.
If you think food prices are high now, it looks to get worse.
This rain will help, but much of the southeast and key parts of the central states are in a severe drought, and as noted above it takes several rain events for moisture to soak into the ground and reach the root zones of newly planted crops. This sping/summer growing season is already in peril. But that’s not the worst of if. Because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refineries there, as well as disruptions to the global oil markets due to sanctions and disruptions to Russian refineries from Ukrainian attacks, the global fertilizer markets are in a crisis.
Farmers are cutting back on using fertilizer, meaning yields will be lower. As most of you know, the main thrust of my work these days is in the geopolitical realm. I’m hearing some pretty apocalyptic things (which is just a day ending in “y” for me!), and some of it is potentially overblown, but it does seem we are lurching towards a global fuel and food crisis.
Another issue, something that has been lurking under the surface for decades, is the use of ethanol for fuel. Approximately one third of the U.S. corn crop goes to create ethanol, which is blended with petroleum based products. While this is good for farmers in terms of price support in good years, it is problematic from a food pricing and security standpoint. Ethanol blends can be corrosive and have storage/stability issues, so there are technical issues as well. Unfortunately, it appears that there will be an expansion of ethanol based fuels.
The thing to remember is that oil fields and transport are not like a valve that can be turned off and on. It takes months, sometimes years, to restart production at a “shut in” oil and gas field or refinery. It takes weeks for oil tankers to load up and move that oil from producers to refineries. So even if everybody suddenly says “ok, lets forget the whole thing and go back to normal” it will be next year before normal flows and processing can resume. This means that the high fuel, fertilizer, and food prices are likely to be with us for some time.
One last, related point. I often hear people say the US has all the oil it needs. This simply isn’t true for one key reason: all oil isn’t the same! Art Berman, one of the world’s leading experts in this field, has a good blog post on the subject. I’ve tried explaining this to some politicians, and they just don’t want to hear it. But as we approach the primaries and voting season, all you need to know is if a candidate says America is energy independent, they are lying, ignorant, or most likely both.
Our nation and world face many problems, but they all have solutions. Just not politically convenient ones.
Since midnight here in Hooterville, 1.27″! 😁