Ice storm to smack southeast but (probably) miss Frogmore Metroplex

The latest modeling indicates the brewing winter storm will narrowly miss coastal Georgia and the SC Lowcountry (better known as the Frogmore Metroplex, see this article for a description). But a huge swath of the south will see ice and snow with freezing rain and sleet over the inland areas …

The Charleston NWS briefing this morning highlights that the biggest issue will be freezing rain. They have a nice graphic showing the timeline for rain and possible freezing rain at two representative locations:

Following the storm, it will be very cold across the region, with wind chills Monday night dropping to 20F and below …

Those in the area should continue to monitor this, especially if you need to travel, and watch for ice on bridges in particular in the morning hours, especially going in to Monday/Tuesday if things can’t dry out before nightfall given the cold air moving in. But overall this should just be a rain event in Charleston, Frogmore (Beaufort/HHI), Savannah and points south. Inland such as Summerville, Statesboro, etc. have a higher chance of ice and minor impacts.

What about the rest of the country?

A broad swath of the south will see at least some freezing rain and ice accumulations. Forget about travel – snow is manageable, but his looks to be a mixed event with a nasty combination of snow and ice layers mixed together, which will be terrible. Freezing rain is always the worst because it accumulates on elevated surfaces. That will cause widespread power outages with lines down, tree limbs (and trees themselves) crashing down with the extra weight. The exact areas that will see the worst are nearly impossible to forecast more than a day in advance, but Sunday looks pretty bad so be prepared for a few miserable days until it melts:

Looking at North Georgia, here is what the Peachtree City NWS office (responsible for North Georgia) has to say:

For those traveling by air, this is likely to be a nightmare weekend. North Georgia, home to the Mos Eisley Spaceport Hartsfield/Jackson International Airport, which is the busiest airport in the world, has a good chance of being impacted by the storm. That will disrupt traffic all over the country. Other major airports and hubs look to be hit as well. I can’t predict what will happen to your individual flight (and at this point neither can the airlines), but expect a lot of delays and cancellations as the impacts cascade through the system. Just stay in touch with the airline or flight tracking sites like Flightaware, be patient, and remember the aviation adage “better to be on the ground wishing you were flying than flying wishing you were on the ground.”

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