Melissa is still disorganized this morning as it drifts in the central Caribbean, but the forecast is increasingly scary. Here is the link to NHC’s Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Melissa (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The forecast swath map now shows a very slow westward movement:
On this track, with the slow movement, Haiti and Jamaica could get truly epic amounts of rain – five feet (60″, 152 cm) in places! The rain, and sustained winds will be catastrophic in Jamaica if this forecast holds up. Impacts of 10% of Jamaica’s GDP are possible (~$1.9 Billion USD), that would be equivalent to a $2.9 TRILLION dollar storm hitting the US! This shows a key difference between island nations and the US – one hurricane or earthquake can’t devastate more than a few percent of the country. For a place like Jamaica, it hits almost everybody.
Given the weak steering and poor state of organization of Melissa, forecast models are still trying to get a grip on the storm. Conditions should become more favorable, and the ocean has enough energy to support whatever intensity the atmosphere will allow. Here are the model tracks this morning …
You’ll notice that the starting positions are all over the place in this. Chances are GFS (the dark blue line) and CMC (Canadian model, the line curving off to the left) are outliers, but at this point hard to say. We’ll just have to wait and see once a center forms. Either way, doesn’t look good for either Jamaica or Haiti.
No forecast impacts to the mainland US. PR/USVI may catch the fringes of the rain field if the storm goes on the far eastern tracks (GFS) but that isn’t likely and shouldn’t be bad even if that happens. Cuba is more likely to see impacts, but that’s too far out to forecast at this point.
The seriousness of the situation for Jamaica means I’m not going to weave lyrics into the post, but even if you’re an unrepentant headbanger like me, if you hear the name “Melissa” and don’t think of this song you have no soul, and it’s too classic to ignore. So here’s the incomparable Allman Brothers Band doing a live acoustic version of Melissa …
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Thanks, Chuck. “Melissa” is my late cousin Gregory’s best song.
Annie Allman
There is so much incredible musical talent in your family!
I second Anne’s comment, my favorite band.
Jim Piette
Thanks for your reporting of dates, and for the earworm!
My dad named me after this song. It’s always been a favorite.
Greg Allman lived here in Richmond Hill. Used to see him around town, waiting in line at Publix, etc. RIP.