There are two red blobs of doom in the Atlantic, which means a high probability of at least a tropical depression forming in the next few days. And there are hurricane warnings up for the Azores as Gabrielle tracks back to the eastern Atlantic. Ragasa is causing significant death and destruction in Asia.
Gabrielle is a powerful 100kt (115 mph) storm tracking towards the Azores, where hurricane warnings are now up. But those in the Western Atlantic are probably more interested it two increasingly mature systems being tracked as INVEST areas, AL93 and AL94. Of the two, the closer (AL94) is weaker and less well organized, the farther (AL93) is likely to become at least a depression today …
As the sun rises over AL94, it isn’t very organized yet, most of the cloud cover and convection is far south of the nominal center …
The tracks for both systems keep them offshore, with Bermuda perhaps the only non-fish interest at risk. Still worth periodic checks, as neither storm is formed well enough for a solid tracking lock, but not anything to wear out your refresh key over.
Some in the Tropical Terror community are making a lot of the latest European model runs, that show two systems close to the southeast on Sunday evening …
But the GFS run at the same initial time (00z) shows the two merging, and the result much weaker …
The GFS solution is perhaps more reasonable, but the situation is complex, and neither model should be trusted at this stage. The 06z GFS run (that just wrapped up) shows a stronger storm offshore:
There are many reasons to be skeptical. First, the outcomes are *very* dependent on initialization, and even small variations in initial conditions (within the noise of observations) can radically change the outcome. Second, numerical instability means when you have powerful forces acting in close proximity tend to be unstable. So I don’t believe either at this point.
Elsewhere, Hurricane Narda is tracking away from Mexico and not an issue …
Typhoon Ragasa has made landfall just south of Hong Kong. It caused more destruction in Taiwan than expected, including at least 20 deaths, as heavy rains caused a retaining structure to fail and floodwaters surged through the town of Guangfu. There were also several deaths in The Philippines, which also saw the fringes of the storm. More misery is on the way, another storm has formed and is headed along a track just south of that taken by Ragasa …
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Thanks for your insight. I come to you for all my Doom updates!