TL;DR: Gabrielle tracking trending east (away from Bermuda). Three tropical storms in West Pacific, two either near or headed to Hong Kong area. More big earthquakes along Pacific Rim.
In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is showing some signs of organization, and NHC is expecting it to become a hurricane as it roils the waters east of Bermuda. The major track models are now pretty consistent on the subject:
It should stay far enough east to not cause major impacts, but if you are there worth monitoring until it is past to make sure there are no last minute wobbles.
There is an invest area in the Pacific off of Mexico, but conditions aren’t great even though it may briefly become a tropical system as it stays offshore.
The major concerns are again in the West Pacific. Tropical Storm Mitag is making landfall on the coast of China north of Hong Kong, with impacts of $5 to $10 Million USD mostly in the form of disruptions from rain squalls and gusty winds.
The biggest concern is Tropical Storm Ragasa. While at the moment only a tropical storm, it is forecast to rapidly become a Super Typhoon (equivalent to a greater than Category Three on the Saffir-Simpson scale) as it passes north of The Philippines. On the current Joint Typhoon Warning Center track, it is forecast to make a direct hit on the Hong Kong/Macao area next Tuesday, putting 120 Million people in the wind swath …
If that comes to pass, damage could be extensive, potentially topping $50 Billion USD. But lots of uncertainty, small wobbles could place the highest winds away from the most densely populated areas, it might not get that strong or be that strong when it hits (JTWC forecasts tend to be on the high side). Still, well worth keeping an eye on as this is an economically important hub for both China and the world.
Speaking of the Pacific Rim, there were a couple of major earthquakes in the last day, including a 7.8 near the always active Kamchatka Peninsula that briefly generated tsunami warnings across the region. All clear now.
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