Still mostly “Meh”(18 Sept 2025)

TL;DR: Gabrielle isn’t really very organized, but is expected to strengthen some while annoying fish and maybe brushing Bermuda. In the West Pacific Tropical Depression 23 is struggling as well, probably just annoying rather than dangerous for Hong Kong.

Tracking five systems this morning, two of which have official advisories. The Atlantic has one storm (Gabrielle) and disturbance that NHC downgraded to zero percent chance of spinning up. Here’s the forecast track line and IR image for Gabrielle …

Satellite image showing the forecast track of Hurricane Gabrielle in the Atlantic, along with nearby weather systems and geographical locations.

The forecast models have trended east (away from everybody) overnight, and while Bermuda should “monitor” everybody else can worry about other stuff this week. Note the “invest” behind Gabby has no tracks – the models lost lock on it.

Map showing tropical storm track models for Gabrielle, with multiple colored lines indicating forecast paths off the East Coast of the United States.

In the West Pacific, Tropical Depression 23 was just upgraded to tropical storm Mitag (map hasn’t had it’s coffee yet), but has not organized as much as forecast either, now likely to just be mostly a rain and maybe gusty wind event for China. There are two invest areas that may spin up in the next couple of days.

Satellite image showing the West Pacific region with outlined forecast paths for Tropical Depression 23 and other systems.

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