TL;DR: finally a storm forms in the Atlantic, providing a much needed boost to the ad driven click-bait sectors of the economy. Probably only going to be of concern to Bermuda. Elsewhere Mario may rain on the US Southwest, and still watching Hong Kong.
At 5am this morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC) started advisories on the disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. There are “Key Messages” yet, but NHC’s official products are at this link. Here’s the morning IR satellite image and official track line based on their first forecast:
Here is the impact swath based on the official track:
Since it hasn’t really formed a distinct center yet, forecast confidence isn’t great at this point. Looking at the main model tracks, there is some initial consistency but there is a lot of scatter in both position and intensity later on …
There is a lot of scatter in GFS, and the difference between the primary high resolution run and the ensembles is dramatic. In this map, the dark blue line is the main run, the light blue line the average of the ensembles, the thin lines individual ensemble members. Note if the storm takes the hard left turn, it is likely to be quite weak.
The bottom line on TD7 is nothing really much to get excited about as of yet. Worth checking in tomorrow to see what the trends are and, as the system consolidates, which way it’s going to go (which will control intensity).
Elsewhere, here is the big picture using the fancy QGIS based automatic mapping system I’m playing with … earthquakes on the left, hurricanes on the right:
The remains of Mario are progged (forecaster slang for “prognosticated”) to migrate up over the US Southwest, potentially bringing rain and flash floods to the region, including Southern California (where it never rains, at least according to this video documentary). Here’s what the Los Angeles WSFO has to say …
Still watching Tropical Depression 23, which is now forecast to remain weak as it crosses the South China Sea and passes over Hong Kong. Impacts to China should remain below $50 million USD, mostly transient disruptions rather than actual damage.
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