Erin rapidly intensified overnight and is now a compact Category 4 hurricane. The sun isn’t up yet, but in this Infrared view (with radar from Puerto Rico overlay) you can see the vastly improved organization and clear eye …
Here is the obligatory link to NHC’s Key messages regarding Hurricane Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves). The storm should The storm is still pretty much on the forecast track, although as you can see here (with the track and watch/warning overlays) the center is a little south of it at the moment:
These kinds of wobbles are not unexpected, we have to continue watching to see if it’s a trend but likely not. Here is the forecast impact swath using NHC’s forecast track/intensity. Notice the rapid expansion of the wind field; that’s not a map artifact, the wind field really is growing like that:
If this track holds tropical storm conditions should stay just north of the northernmost Virgin Islands. I’m a bit surprised that NHC hasn’t put put tropical storm watches for the VI and PR, but they have noted that there will be potentially heavy rains and gusty winds sweeping across the islands. On day 4-5, the forecast has the storm close enough to Bermuda to do the same, and it will be on the “strong” side of the storm so be prepared.
The models are pretty consistent at this point, having the storm go in between Hatteras and Bermuda, with the longer range (day 6-10) staying away from Vinland and Markland as well (aka the Canadian Atlantic Provinces) …
I’ve noticed an explosion of wave height maps over the last few days like this one:
I suspect this isn’t really an attempt at giving you better information, but two factors. First, there are now global wave models tied to the atmospheric models, and both GFS and ECM generate this data in a much easier to get and use format than they used to. Second, this feels like a hyping/attention grabbing mechanism as it shows impacts reaching the US coast, especially given the color map. As seem above, the wind impacts will stay well offshore on the forecast track. Of course, there will be waves and they will likely cause rip currents – something any large storm in the Atlantic will generate, winter or summer. Five or six foot waves from hurricanes and winter storms are not that unusual along the beaches of the Frogmore Metroplex. Yes, something to be aware of if you go out as rough surf can be dangerous, and some coastal erosion is possible, but this isn’t all that unusual with a big storm.
This feels like the explosion of wind gust maps a few years ago – bigger numbers and more dramatic maps get more attention and clicks. Don’t get me wrong, it’s interesting in a lot of respects, and I think these kinds of maps can be very useful, but it struck me how, like gusts, it suddenly became a thing, with a storm that otherwise we would be saying “great, staying offshore!”
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