TLDR: Erin still looks to skirt the northern Leeward Islands before curving north. There is a disturbance in the western Gulf of Whatever that should be making landfall today.
Erin is still a tropical storm and has not organized as quickly as forecast, but it is entering a more favorable environment and should become a hurricane later today, then Category Three storm over the weekend. For the official word, here are links to the National Hurricane Center’s Key messages regarding Tropical Storm Erin (en Español: Mensajes Claves), that should be your “go to” source. There are tropical storm watches up for the far northern Leeward Islands, and NHC may extend watches to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today.
Here is the forecast impact swath using my TAOS(tm) model. It shows the impacts staying offshore, however, given uncertainty in the forecast it is possible that tropical storm conditions may brush the northern islands if there is a southerly wobble or wider wind field than anticipated …
The track forecast hasn’t really changed much, and the main global models are pretty consistent. Erin has started working its way around the western side of a ridge of high pressure, and is expected to begin a sharp turn to the north then curve northeast.
The detailed regional models (that only go out to five days) are a bit further west than the global models, even further than the European Centre model; the NHC forecast splits the difference.
As for impacts, the biggest problem is likely to be squall lines associated with feeder bands passing over the northern Leeward islands, and later probably the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These can cause a lot of rain and gusty winds. Waves along the north shores will likely be pretty rough as well, so while Erin might be a Cat 3 well offshore, at worst only low end tropical storm conditions are likely to be seen on the Islands. Longer term (7-8 days) Bermuda will need to pay attention – aside from swell and rip currents, it’s not likely the US will see any significant impacts.
In the western Gulf of Whatever, NHC is monitoring a blob of showers that isn’t very organized, but might technically become a tropical depression if it develops a low level circulation before wandering ashore later today. Impacts on northern Mexico and far south Texas likely to be limited to gusty winds and rain. Here is the radar on top of the IR satellite view …
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I don’t know how I found this site, but I’m glad I did. I like to follow the weather, hurricanes, etc., but a lot of the weather apps are too technical. I appreciate your conversational tone and, especially, the fact that you haven’t succumbed to the whims of a narcissist, and are using the term Gulf of Whatever.
I have a sailboat in Boston and a place in southern South Carolina so am always concerned with these storms Thank you for putting out accurate information and analysis without the hype-you have reduced my level of stress on many occasions and given me an appropriately heightened level when it was necessary. I really appreciate what you do.
Love the “Gulf of Whatever”. And thank you for your calm analysis.