Tropics aren’t particularly doomy this morning. There is a system off the coast of Florida that is expected to track westward this week, NHC has it tagged at 30% chance of development before Friday:

It is important to note the official outlook does not have any “magic words” that would cause the average person to do anything besides go about your normal business. The system will likely trigger thunderstorms across Florida, Georgia, and as the week goes on Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, but that’s just a day ending in “y” in the southeast during summer. Some chance of isolated flash flooding in downpours but, again, normal summer stuff for the most part.
Another local southeast note: the series of thunderstorms that spun up in the Savannah area spawned a tornado that crossed the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. Here’s the link to the NWS preliminary report. This is why I strongly recommend you have a weather radio. The alert for that storm did not sound on my phone until 5 minutes after it had passed, and the Alexa warning didn’t come in for nearly 20 minutes.
Please note that while I am dismissive of the hype around weaker tropical systems, that doesn’t mean that any thunderstorms they contain can’t be locally hazardous. They won’t cause widespread damage and disruption, so you don’t need to take special precautions, but as in a “normal” thunderstorm they can cause isolated problems. Just have a weather radio and use some common sense (yeah, I know).

Near Japan, Tropical depression seven moved over the southern of Kyushu and is dissipating. Tropical Storm Nari is decaying offshore, but the remnants will hit Hokkaido in a couple of days.
If you like this commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch), Telegram, or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media dystopia.

Thank you again for your dedication and the informative posts. You are greatly appreciated!