A yellow blob appeared on the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook yesterday evening, in the same area of the Gulf of Whatever that spawned Chantal last week …
The outlook does not have any “magic words,” any development should be towards the middle of next week (Wednesday, 16/17 July) as the blob migrates westward (towards the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast). The latest GFS run wasn’t very enthusiastic about anything other than rain, with some areas alont the Florida coast getting 5-6″ of rain …
Even if this system develops tropical characteristics, most likely this will be a rain event and very unlikely to become a hurricane. Again a reminder, “tropical characteristics” or even “tropical development” does not automatically mean “hazardous,” much less “dangerous.” The potential may be there, but it’s just that: potential.
Elsewhere, Japan is surrounded by weak systems. Tropical Storm Nari is curving off the east coast, should bring winds and rain to the northernmost Island as it breaks up. On the other side, Tropical Depression Seven will likely become a weak tropical storm as it curves into the Sea of Japan and in to Korea.
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