As the sun sets over Australia this morning (well, morning from my biased perspective, evening for them of course), Cyclone Zelia is nearing landfall over the sparsely populated northwestern coast. Here’s the view at sunset over the eye …
Despite the fact Zelia is the equivalent of a Category 4 storm, economic impacts look to be on the order of “only” $100 Million USD given there isn’t that much in the way. Of course, if you are, it is a big deal, with winds at landfall possibly approaching 245 kph (155 mph), which are almost Category 5 levels …
The slow movement is dumping a lot of water, perhaps upwards of a meter (38″). This is the GFS estimate (in inches):
Broadening the view we can see two other storms, Taliah stirring up the empty reaches of the Southern Indian Ocean, and Subtropical Storm 16, which may become tropical as it passes south of New Caledonia over the next few days.
Some are already making noises trying to forecast the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Ignore them. Until we get past the “spring barrier” in April seasonal forecasts have almost no skill with respect to hurricane activity.