The development of longer range weather models and the wide availability of their data, combined with the commercialization of news and the advent of social media, has certainly been a mixed blessing. Longer range models can be extremely useful – if properly interpreted. But the temptation to generate clickbait seems to be overwhelming for even those in the commercial news business, much less the army of bloggers. It’s a nightmare – I shiver, quiver, and try to wake.
Hurricane season is bad enough, but when The color of the sky as far as I can see is coal grey, the hype continues. The forecast for next week (20-25 January) for the southeast is very uncertain. Here is what the WSFO Charleston has to say:
Transitioning to Tuesday and beyond, the forecast becomes
increasingly tricky and potentially impactful. The cold temperatures
seem to be the only part of the forecast met with high confidence,
as for the rest of forecast is where confidence decreases
significantly. With the 00Z GFS/ECMWF deterministic model runs
suggesting a more suppressed solution with the surface high pushed
very far south and removing any chance of precipitation from
developing. This is wildly different from the last couple model runs
which was showing some sort of coastal low passing by to the south
or just offshore and bringing a wintry mix of snow and ice along
with it. However, the GFS/ECMWF ensemble members are still in
agreement with this solution. Thus, considerable uncertainty remains
with this system and all scenarios are still on the table.
As an aside, here is the area that the Charleston Weather Service Office is responsible for …
Since my computer generated the following ten day animation based on the latest GFS run I’ll put it here, but don’t take anything beyond 72 hours seriously:
The short version, as I harp on every winter, is that precipitation type (snow/ice/rain) in the southeast, especially along the coast, is really a crap shoot until you get about 2-3 days out. For the first event, Monday evening, we aren’t in that window yet – and to talk about later in the week is just a waste of time other than to say it will be cold.
That said, are you prepared for the (low) chance we will have a winter storm? As usual, a good place to start is the DHS/FEMA web site, which has checklists for that sort of thing. The main thing is to always be prepared for a week of being without power and unable to travel. That applies year-round, since lots of things ranging from natural disasters to human error to malicious intent like terrorism or riots can result in several days of disruption to every day life. Being able to fend for yourself for a week isn’t paranoid prepping, it’s just common sense. If you can be ready for two weeks, that’s great, but in most cases at least some help gets in to an area within 5-6 days.
But by far the greatest odds are that in the end we will say “What a cold and rainy day. Where on earth is the sun hid away.” Please keep that in mind if you get a shiver in your bones just thinking about the weather.
For those of you who haven’t guessed, today’s classical music reference is from Natalie Merchant, fronting 10,000 Maniacs …
Despite the catchy tune, it’s actually about depression. A lot of people get depressed this time of year, between the holidays and the cold dark days that tend to keep people isolated. It even has a name, seasonal affective disorder. So be aware of it in yourself and tolerant/helpful for folks are feeling low.