Based on organization and intensification trends this morning, at 11am NHC declared Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to be tropical enough to be named Tropical Storm Helene. By this time tomorrow it should be a hurricane, and is expected to be a Category Three at landfall.
The latest forecast track isn’t too much different from 5am, the storm is a bit larger and the economic impact estimates are creeping up as the storm is expected to cause more damage to both the Tampa area as well as Tallahassee, south Georgia, and given the speed and landfall size, probably well in to Georgia with impacts reaching the Atlanta area. And, given how critical Mos Eisely, um, Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (I get them mixed up, both being wretched hives of scum and villainy) is to air traffic, expect airline schedules to be snarled throughout the country from Thursday through this weekend.
Fortunately for Frogmore and environs (Savannah, Beaufort, Hilton Head), the subtle track shift means conditions might (might) not be as bad as forecast, and further north (Charleston) even better. Still, the narrative from this morning’s blog post is probably good for planning purposes, and it is likely from Thursday noon through Friday noon will be disrupted with closures, gusty winds, and scattered power outages. Right on the coast will be blustery, and as noted some shallow coastal flooding from the GA/FL border to the Low Country can’t be ruled out (limited to right on the coast – Helene isn’t Debby or a Irma/Michael like flood event by a long shot!). Further inland, say the other side of a line from August to Waycross, things look increasingly messy with the potential for higher winds and tornadoes. Macon and Atlanta will likely have significant power outages, trees down, and the tornado or five shouldn’t be unexpected. Going to make a serious mess if this forecast holds up.
By tomorrow at this time we should have a better picture on timing and details.
If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media swamp.
How do you think this will compare to Matthew?
Nowhere near as bad based on current forecast.
I am always entertained by your references to Frogmore (which is where The Frogmore International Airport and The Frogmore International Carwash) are. I grew up in Beaufort; my father was in the furniture business and I did lots of deliveries out that way. Not just everybody could understand the folks that lived on the islands. I very well remember the window frames painted all sort of very loud colors…to keep the haunts out. And there was Dr. Hawk, Dr. Chicken and Dr. Snake all of whom would put the ‘root’ on folks for a price. A great place to grow up!
I do love your references to Frogmore.
Arnold Young