Let the Worry Begin!

Those of you who were worrying about when to worry can stop worrying and start to worry 😛 ! NHC has now added the “magic words” to the tropical weather outlook (TWO). In addition, the system is “there” and has an invest ID (AL97). And if that’s not enough, on the Pacific side, Tropical Depression 10 East has formed. So in all seriousness, now is the time for some to start paying attention.

Since it is of most immediate concern to Nicholas (who is now sleeping on the desk as opposed to his chair), here is the latest on AL97. Unusually, NHC has Key Messages for the tropical disturbance in the NW Caribbean posted, and the “magic words” of Interests <somewhere> should <do something> have appeared:

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.

So if you are in those places, start paying attention – closely if in Yucatan/Cuba, casually if on the Gulf Coast. NHC has now designated the disturbance as an invest area, which means instead of the tracks based on model estimated genesis locations, a specific location is now entered into the models for tracking. This also means the dedicated hurricane specific models can begin to try to get a handle on the thing. We’ll have a much better picture in the morning as the first two rounds of model runs finish, but for those who can’t wait here is an early view of the basic GFS based track models known as the Trajectory BAM family …

The BAM models use a global model (in this case the GFS model) and steering currents (winds at various levels in the atmosphere) to try to figure out where a vortex might go. They are an older approach, but have the advantage of running fast using the existing runs (so you don’t need to wait 6 hours), and do a fair job out to 72 hours or so.

This raises a critical point in storm tracking: watch for trends, not wobbles. This is why I generally only do one or two posts a day. You can make yourself crazy trying to pick apart every wobble, every new model run, etc. The “windshield wiper” effect, where you chase tracks back and forth across the screen, is a real thing. Don’t do it (or pay much attention to those that do who are trying to keep you amped up and clicking). Other than things like emergency management instructions and closures, things don’t typically change hour by hour – the “time scale” for hurricane watching is normally 6 to 12 hours so give the refresh key a break unless you are in a watch or warning area..

Right now the dynamical models are clustered on the big bend area of Florida, with a landfall Thursday evening or Friday. Meanwhile, Yucatan will get drenched the next few days as the system wanders north. Development isn’t expected until it enters the Gulf, but a depression might form before that. Frogmore and suburbs like Beaufort, HHI, and Savannah can sleep well tonight and check in tomorrow to start thinking about a “back door” storm later in the week or next weekend (but not worry, just think). We should have a fuzzy picture on that tomorrow, and a clearer picture by Tuesday evening of that risk (if any).

In related news, NHC started advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-East: Key Messages regarding Tropical Depression Ten-E (en Español: Mensajes Claves). This system is expected to become a tropical storm overnight – as you can see in the IR view here it already has a healthy cloud pattern … note Invest AL97 on the other side of Central America:

TD10E isn’t expected to become a hurricane, but might drop a lot of rain and cause flash flooding and mudslides in Oaxaca and Chiapas. Yes, the circulations of these two systems are and will interact in interesting and complex ways we’ll talk about later.

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