TL;DR: Typhoon Yagi is about two days away from potentially severe impacts on Leizhou and Zhanjiang, China. The Atlantic stubbornly refuses to terrorize the denizens of the US, threatening the economic livelihoods of thousands of doom-bloggers, who are frantically scanning the skies for scary looking clouds.
As expected Yagi (WP12) is intensifying, and as of this morning (5am 4 Sep 2024 US Time) just over two days away from passing over Guangdong Province in Southern China on the way to Vietnam. The storm is expected to flirt with super-typhoon status (Category 4 on the Saffir Simpson scale):
While expected to weaken before landfall, this track and intensity it could easily cause over $10 Billion in damage, potentially pumping over 3 meters of water into the major port of Zhanjiang. After the Leizhou Peninsula, Yagi is expected to make a second landfall in Vietnam just north of Haiphong. Impacts there will depend on wobbles and how rapidly the storm decays and recovers over the Gulf of Tonkin after the first landfall.
In the Atlantic, NHC has downgraded all the blobs of doom to a less scary yellow (30% chance of formation or below) …
Nicholas has reverted to “threat condition meh” after briefly looking at the screen. Only disturbance “1” has much chance of becoming a threat, the global models show some potential for tropical formation after it enters the Bay of Campeche, will know more this weekend.
If you like this kind of commentary you can subscribe to the emails (and/or donate to keep it going) at this link. You can also follow us on X/Twitter (@EnkiResearch) or even Facebook if that’s your preferred social media dystopia.
We have a new term, “anomalously inactive”, bestowed by the blogosphere to an Atlantic failure to produce box office gold. Three promising doombags have flatulated into vapor; a lot of vapor, but vapor nonetheless.