Ernesto made landfall on Bermuda this morning just before 5am. Fortunately it was not as strong as forecast a couple days ago, as it entrained dry air and encountered more shear than expected. Here is the GOES satellite image water vapor band (6.9um) that shows the amount of moisture content in the middle of the atmosphere … notice the gray swirl entering the left hand side of the storm.
Impacts are expected to be moderate, some power outages and light damage given the high quality of construction. Still expect economic impacts in the $100-250 million USD range. Ernesto is now forecast to move just off Vinland (aka Newfoundland) in a couple more days, as with locations to the south, the most likely impacts are to be waves. There are surf and rip current advisories across most of the Atlantic shorelines today, so be careful if going to the beach.
Speaking of power, it is slowly coming back on in Puerto Rico and the USVI. About 180,000 sites are without power and about the same without water – not great given the area is under a heat advisory.
Sorry about Ernesto updates, but got pulled away on an urgent analysis yesterday. The “Chinese” curse “May you live in interesting times” comes to mind. Which, despite being called a Chinese curse, doesn’t seem to be Chinese at all but was apparently made up by a British “Statesman” of the late 19th/early 20th Century, which actually makes a whole different and better level of sense if you think about it.