As prognosticated Friday, the tropical wave crossing the Atlantic continued to slowly evolve, and on Saturday had enough organization for the various meteorological centers to designate an invest area and assign a temporary ATCF ID of AL982024 to start consistent model tracking guidance. And as also expected, overnight the US National Hurricane Center (NHC, who are also the World Meteorological Agency designated specialized forecast center for the Atlantic), added the “Magic Words” to their outlook, advising those in the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles to start “monitoring.” So that’s what we will do …
Here is what the system (spiral on the left) looks like as the sun rises over the Atlantic. You can use the cool swiper thingee so you can compare how it looks in both visual and Infrared by grabbing the swiper with your mouse and moving it back and forth. IR is important so you can see where the colder cloud tops, and therefore stronger convection and organization. Compare with the wave on the right, which has colder cloud tops (stronger convection) but less organization.
However, AL98 is entering an area favorable for development – low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures. The major models all spin it up and most forecasts show it becoming a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The track models are remarkably consistent for a system at this stage and forecast it to make a sharp turn, indicating fairly consistent steering currents. Here’s the latest (6am) computer track models:
So what does it all mean? Those in the Leeward Islands – Martinique northward to Anguilla – should be ready for watches later today, and think about what they need to do to get ready for a tropical storm Tuesday or Wednesday. The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and probably the Dominican Republic as well should also be monitoring and thinking about preparing for a possible hurricane Thursday or Friday, as the models are indicating the system could become a hurricane by then.
Longer range, as the track models indicate, the forecast is for a sharp northward turn between high pressure to the north (the Bermuda high) and high pressure off to the west over the Southeastern US. This is the most likely scenario, and all of the major models show it to one degree or another. Until the turn happens, which will be a complex interaction of the two highs and the storm itself, we won’t know for sure how close to The Bahamas, the Southeastern US, or the other way Bermuda, the storm will go. But for now, while Puerto Rico and the USVI are in the cross-hairs, it looks like this won’t be a threat to the Continental US.
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