The latest National Hurricane Center forecast continues the trend of a slightly faster moving storm. As always for the official word start with the Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Debby (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Here is my TAOS(tm) TC model simulation of the NHC track. The northward shift relative to this morning is obvious … this track puts a tropical storm landfall impacting Myrtle Beach on Thursday:
Rain continues to be the main concern. But as noted in this afternoon’s update, there is reason to think the total won’t be as high as originally feared. Don’t mistake that for being “good,” just “a lot less bad” especially for Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry. From Charleston northward to Morehead City it would be smart to expect tropical storm conditions, although the warnings only extend to Wilmington at the moment (5pm Monday).
Next big update in the morning, when the QPF (precipitation) trends and totals are clearer.
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I’m on Skidaway. Hope we don’t have a steady “train” of rotating storms coming off the Atlantic all night. My first hurricane season since losing my husband.
re. your comment earlier today regarding “good news” of dry air entrainment, just watched radar for precipitation and watched two blue daggers of dry air from west and north getting sucked up and turning a lot of red precip to yellow.
Go Blue daggers.
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Thank you for these timely and evidence based storm updates.
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