Potential Tropical Cyclone 22

TLDR: NHC started advisories on the potential system in the Caribbean. It may not become tropical, but will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Jamaica, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos over the next 36 hours. No eruption yet in Iceland but one is expected in the next two days if it’s going to happen.

Last night the US National Hurricane Center started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 22. Recall that a PTC is a system that isn’t tropical but is expected (or might) become one, and is close to land so advisories are started. That triggers the emergency planning process so people don’t get caught off guard just in case it does cross the threshold. Here is a map of the potential impacts as generated by my TAOS/TC model, using the NHC forecast:

click to embiggen.

As of this morning, PTC22 remains non-tropical, and some of the models indicate it will stay that way. That technicality doesn’t matter in one sense, the potential impacts are likely the same: tropical storm force winds and heavy rain. It is the rain that is the most concern, especially in mountainous areas where there is the potential for mudslides. Haiti is especially vulnerable due to the deforestation and population density, so it’s never safe to say even weaker systems will have minimal impacts as disaster lurks just below the surface of almost any event in that unfortunate nation.

Nothing much changed in Iceland overnight, signs an eruption is imminent continue in the form of ground displacement, outgassing, and microtremors. A lot of good science is being done on this, which is probably little consolation to the people who are displaced from their homes and businesses, and waiting to see if they are only damaged, or soon to be destroyed.

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