Tropics 17 Oct 2023

As of this morning, no active tropical cyclones being tracked anywhere, although there are a few disturbances with the potential to spin up in the next day or two. In the Atlantic, AL94 has been drifting across the southern Atlantic and conditions look favorable for it to become a tropical storm in a few days. It may threaten to brush the Leeward islands, NHC has the “magic words” in their outlook: Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. So if you are there do that.

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Elsewhere, off of Mexico a disturbance (EP90) should become a depression then tropical storm in the next couple of days. It looks to head towards the Gulf of California, GFS spins it up into a hurricane before landfall.

Finally, a system in the South China Sea has the potential to become a tropical storm as it makes its way along the Vietnam Coast and enters the Gulf of Tonkin …

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