Philippe side-swiping Leeward Islands tonight

Philippe (AL17) was supposed to stay far enough east of the islands to avoid problems, but storms being storms and forecasts being forecasts, it isn’t working out that way. Here are NHC’s Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Philippe (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the TAOS/TC based impact swath:

click any image to embiggen.

As noted yesterday impacts should be limited Antigua and Barbuda, mostly heavy rain and gusty winds. Bottom line is that any impacts or disruptions should be minor unless something breaks that shouldn’t or someone is unlucky. Afterwards the storm should move north and while it will likely strengthen (perhaps even becoming a hurricane) it looks to miss Bermuda on its way to the North Atlantic.

On the other side of the world, Typhoon Koinu is now the equivalent of a Saffir-Simpson Category Three (Major) hurricane, and should hit south-central Taiwan Wednesday (Taiwan time). This will likely cause significant impacts across the island including wind damage and flooding, if the JTWC forecast is correct, over $5 Billion USD. Note this is half of yesterday’s forecast since JTWC shifted the track northward but weakened the storm intensity forecast. Damage forecasts for concentrated infrastructure like that on Taiwan is extremely sensitive to even small changes in the forecast. Afterwards, Koinu looks to hit north of Hong Kong, near Chaozhou as a decaying but still damaging Typhoon. Here’s the forecast impact swath based on my TAOS/TC model:

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