Pelagic storms in the Atlantic; Depression landfall in Vietnam

TLDR: for the Atlantic, slog through your Monday, recover Tuesday, check back Wednesday. Tropical Depression making landfall in Vietnam.

There’s a somewhat disorganized tropical storm in the Atlantic this morning (Monday 25 Sept 2023), Philippe (AL17). No key messages, no threat to land in the near future (and likely never). The chatteroti will likely spew many electrons over the fact that the guidance is split on this storm, with the US GFS model taking the storm to the northeast over open water and strengthening. The European global model, the UK Met, as well as many of the regional models like the new US models (HFSA and B) are trending more west more towards the Bahamas and US. However, these track also tend to be weaker. Here’s the raw pasta:

click to embiggen.

NHC split the difference between the two (which is sort of cowardly, but makes sense operationally). For the average person trying to cope with the start of the week, no reason to get excited over this unless you run a site that depends on views and clicks. There is no immediate threat, and both the direction intensity trend will become clearer in a couple of days.

Behind Philippe is a wave that might spin up – in comparison, the guidance is pretty tight staying over open water for the foreseeable future (week or so, and likely beyond). Yeah, yeah, yellow blob in the Gulf of Mexico. At 10% chance of anything other than rain (from NHC ) and no ATCFID, I’m not wasting time on it 😛 .

West Pacific Tropical Depression Thirteen is making landfall in Vietnam late tonight/early tomorrow Asia time as a rain event, so the usual precautions for flash flooding apply for the north central and northern areas of the country as well as central Laos as it decays inland.

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