Ophelia is making landfall on the North Carolina coast this morning. The peak winds are borderline hurricane, I’m a bit surprised NHC didn’t upgrade. Structurally the storm was trying for form an eye but is still somewhat hybrid – not that it matters in terms of impacts. Here’s the NHC Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Ophelia (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and my TAOS/TC impact model swath based on the 5am (Sat 23 Sept) forecast:
Some minor changes since yesterday, impact estimates have crept up with the higher winds and better organization to the high end of the estimates (yesterday’s estimate $150-250 million, this morning’s at land fall estimate $242 Million USD). North Carolina’s coast is experiencing tropical storm conditions, which should be peaking this morning and continuing through the day, ending overnight. One significant change is that Ophelia is expected to be absorbed within a front fairly quickly after landfall, so impacts in Virginia should be less than yesterday’s forecast, and in the embarrassing clown car pretending to be our nation’s capital (DC), Maryland/Delmarva, and New Jersey should be significantly less and more like just normal bad weather than a ZOMG moment.
Elsewhere, fish and fish related interests are watching with minimal concern a disturbance crossing the Atlantic. NHC gives it a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next week, and it’s likely we will get another tropical storm and hurricane out of it (next name on the list is Philippe). Doesn’t look to be a problem, most likely path is east of Bermuda into the North Atlantic …
There are some disturbances in the East and Central Pacific, as well as one in the West Pacific, but no threats to land.