Potential TC 16

At 11am NHC started advisories on the thing off of Florida as Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 16. Recall that a PTC is a way for the Hurricane Center to start advisories and raise warnings for something that at the moment doesn’t technically meet their advisory criteria, but might, and people need to prepare. Here are their Key Messages regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (en Español: Mensajes Claves). While not tropical at the moment, it does have the potential to gain some tropical characteristics, and perhaps form a small core. Here’s my TAOS/TC model impact swath based on their forecast ..

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Tropical storm force winds should start reaching the coast of North Carolina tomorrow. For the most part this should be more like a nor’easter than a tropical storm – in other words, broad wind field, strong tropical storm winds, although as noted a core could form before landfall. It does look like there will be storm surges along the coast of North Carolina and Virginia – possibly hazardous in places.

For coastal Georgia and South Carolina south of Charleston, this should be a non-event. Probably won’t even get any more rain other than what’s coming this evening before midnight. Maybe a bit breezy right on the coast tomorrow. Tides shouldn’t be a problem, tomorrow afternoon’s high tide is forecast at 8.7 feet, well below the point where there are problems. If you plan on going to the beach this weekend beware of rip currents.

From Charleston north to South of the Border (North Carolina) and Myrtle Beach, conditions should worsen but still be below hazardous levels. There is potential for rain and gusty winds all day tomorrow afternoon in to evening. Once in to North Carolina up to Maryland is where things get dicey, the outer banks should expect tropical storm conditions no matter if the thing is technically a tropical storm or not, it won’t matter. On the coast, tides will run probably on the order of 3-4 feet above normal so if you’re close to the water that’s what to expect. Flash flooding inland is also possible in NC and Virginia. Water levels in Chesapeake Bay will also likely be 3-4 feet above normal, depending on the exact track. Most of the wind impacts should stay east of I-95.

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