Thu. 21 Sept notes

To sound like the proverbial broken record, nothing much has changed. The thing off of the Southeast looks to stay offshore for the next two days, then dive into North Carolina as a nor’easter type structure, essentially tropical storm conditions. The wave off of Africa still hasn’t been given an ATCF ID (as of 6am), but looks to develop into a depression and possibly tropical storm as it crosses the Atlantic and follows a Nigel or Lee like track, staying north of the Caribbean and offshore of the US (Bermuda might be in the frame in 7-10 days but that’s way off). Here’s some pics …

For the Coastal GA/SC area, the thing offshore shouldn’t cause any problems. Some rain today, maybe some gusty wind but my guess is most of the wind will stay on the islands or offshore. Nothing to worry about in either case. Here’s the forecast for Friday morning from the NAM-HIRES model:

By Saturday the storm should be making landfall in North Carolina; my guess is if it starts to spin up with this kind of structure NHC will start advisories, but I think this forecast may be a bit overdone. In any event, not likely a dangerous event, probably not more than inconvenient other than right on the coast, where you probably don’t want to do a “Lt. Dan” and go yell at the storm, which will feel like a tropical storm or nor’easter.

For what it’s worth (at this point probably not a lot) the wave off of Africa should be tracking west. Will have a better handle on this by the weekend, feel free to not worry about it for a couple more days.