Hurricane Hilary has started a weakening trend as expected, this morning down to 115 knots from the peak of 125kts yesterday. This trend should continue through today as the storm passes over colder water and interacts with Baja California. Here are links to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Hurricane Hilary (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the forecast impact swath from my TAOS/TC model:
While there will likely be some wind and surge damage along the Baja coastline, the big risk from Hilary is rain and flooding across the desert southwest as some areas may receive a year’s worth of rainfall in a day or less. These heavy rains will be starting over the day today, being pushed ahead of the storm, so those in the area need to take precautions.
There is activity in the Atlantic to talk about, will post on that later today …