The forecast for Bret continues to become more clear. This afternoon US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reduced the forecast intensity and while the storm will still likely bring tropical storm conditions to the Eastern Caribbean islands (there are now tropical storm watches for Barbados and Dominica), Bret shouldn’t become a hurricane, and in fact is forecast to dissipate after crossing the Lessor Antilles …
On this track and forecast, economic impacts just over $100 Million, 658 thousand people might experience tropical storm conditions, mostly on Martinique and St. Lucia. Rain and flash flooding in the mountains is always a risk with this kind of storm, see the NHC Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Bret (en Español: Mensajes Claves) for the latest watches and warnings.
As for AL93, it is forecast to become a tropical depression and possible a tropical storm in a few days. It is likely to take the path Bret didn’t, and turn northward into the central Atlantic. There is not an official forecast yet, but here is what the GFS swath looks like …
If it does spin up, it would become Tropical Depression Four (80% chance) and if winds top 45mph, Tropical Storm Cindy. Looks to miss the Caribbean, and shouldn’t be a threat to the US any time soon if ever. We’ll have a better handle on that once is gets organized enough for the models to track it better.
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Thank you for your well written and easy to understand analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes.