I remember flying over the Persian Gulf one clear moonless winter night in the late 80s, the lights from oil platforms, gas flares, and scattered cities looked like stars when seen from <redacted> thousand feet. It was disorienting – you could see the faint glow of the horizon, but looking down was like looking through a portal into another sky.
It’s a myth that you can’t see borders from space. Land use patterns and development differ between nations. Even at night borders are often visible in the form of lights from roads and border areas illuminated for security reasons, North Korea is famously dark compared to its more developed southern neighbor. Gaza, formerly brightly lit, is now a dirty gray, lit only by the few generator powered lights.
Across the Middle East, as has been the case in Ukraine the last 12 years, there are now the flares of explosions and resulting fires. The internet, combined with the wide availability of satellite data has spawned a host of open source “intelligence” bloggers. Most of them are agenda driven clickbait, misusing and misunderstanding data sets like the NASA FIRMS fire data sets, not to mention all the AI slop. But, they can create pretty maps, and folks make money off it. so I guess that’s good for the economy if not for your brain or sanity.
During the Iraq invasion of 2003-4, I did real-time public updates based on remote sensing, even breaking a few news stories such as the fact the Iraqis had set their oil fields on fire. I’m obviously not doing that this time for a couple of reasons. Back then, I could try to do apolitical, neutral commentary that was accepted by all “sides,” I was quoted by both supporters and opponents of the war. That kind of commentary seems impossible now. Forget being neutral, much less following the sage advice of General, later Senator Carl Schurz:
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.
Anyway, I suspect like anyone who has seen hostile fire in the service of our country, I have mixed feelings when Americans go to war. Concern for them, especially since I know more than a few active duty military members. A tinge of “I should be there” even though I’m well past my expiration date (and, not that I want to, but I just feel the tug of obligation). But mostly regret: in recent years, more often than not I have a feeling that we didn’t do enough to make sure our military doesn’t have to face the ultimate sacrifice. That has increasingly been the focus of my work the last decade, and it feels like it hasn’t been very successful.
Ironically, in some ways the US getting embroiled in a war with Iran somewhat reduces the chances of a superpower conflict with Russia over Ukraine, or China over Taiwan. That very sentence could not be written twenty-five years ago. There was only the hyperpower, the US. Now we have returned to a world with not two but three superpowers, and the era of American Hegemony is ending. The problem is the leadership of the US (both parties) doesn’t realize it yet, and is overextended. But that’s a conversation neither the leadership of this country or the majority of its citizens are ready to hear. The Iran war has the potential to make clearer the limits of the use of military power as the primary tool of statecraft.
Should we be attacking Iran, now? Iran has been a complex regional problem for nearly 50 years, but so have other countries in the region. It is actually less of a source of “terrorist” ideology than at least one other country in the region that we call an ally (that sentence is a Rorschach test – who am I referring to? See comments below). With respect to the nuclear issue, my view is that the JCPOA (the “nuclear deal”) for all its flaws was basically working, and had we followed through it could with work have been extended to cover short and intermediate range ballistic missiles. I think that was a botched opportunity. But while a comprehensive deal and stabilization of the region was to everyone’s practical advantage, it was not to everyone’s commercial, ideological, or religious advantage.
This war is like most wars in history and is ultimately about resources and religion. We could argue that the war against Iraq 23 years ago was a war against the secular Baathist government, not Islam itself. But this war is different. It is more openly a “clash of civilizations” driven at least in part, perhaps mostly, by an odd alliance of Jewish and Evangelical “Christian” Zionists looking to fulfill their contradictory prophecies. It risks morphing into an outright religious war, as many Shiites are increasingly joined by Sunni Muslims in seeing it that way, and a means to fulfill their end-times prophecies. If that attitude spreads, the consequences could be grave.
But all that is incredibly complex and would take books to discuss, far more than a mere blog post can hope to even scratch the surface.
So let’s talk about cats. Like virtually all wars in the modern age, this one is not being fought by those who started or benefit from it, but by young men and women and those who have made a career out of leading them. It’s astonishing how, in the midst of a war, human compassion and young people do what they do, including adopt pets (regulations or not).
Naturally, Americans don’t go to war unless accompanied by the essentials like Pizza Hut. Any military members, contractors, or those “on government service” who spent any time at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in recent years has probably met Meowster Sergeant Pizza Cat, a stray who took up residence at the local Hut, and is a fond memory for everyone who has met her …
At one point an effort was made to clean up strays and wildlife on the base. Command had to send a ‘mea culpa” memo that Pizza Cat was exempt. She made it through the June 2025 attacks, so naturally there is a morale patch to celebrate …
This time, as the attacks started and the base evacuated, hundreds of airmen began demanding to know how she was. And of course social media quickly provided the answer, that the security guys had rounded her up for safety. At last report she is luxuriating in a secure bunker awaiting evacuation.
Of course, Americans aren’t the only ones who love their cats. Here is a Russian soldier sharing his ice cream with a passerby in Crimea …
Naturally there is a morale patch. This one is worn by Russian troops that commemorates the 2014 (invasion, liberation, depending on which side you’re on) of Crimea. It says “polite people”, the nickname for the “little green men” who suddenly appeared across Crimea:
What’s the point of all this? The point is that despite the differences, under the surface humans are largely the same. Yes, there are evil people, but the vast majority just want to live their lives, raise their families, and serve their feline overlords. But they will go to war if their leaders convince them to do so.
I am not by any means a pacifist. Certainly there are legitimate reasons to use military force. But it should be done reluctantly, when diplomatic means are honestly exhausted or there is a truly existential matter at stake. As noted above, I don’t feel the Iran escalation was appropriate at this time, and the reasons given so far are not convincing. I certainly don’t think we properly prepared for it as we did in the Gulf War, and the glee and excitement shown by some is frankly disgusting. Perhaps there is accurate intelligence that indicated we had to attack now, but based on everything I know (which at the risk of hubris is probably a lot), I think there were options short of war that would have served us better.
Good one! I appreciate your POV.
Outstanding observations and there were numerous steps that could have been taken prior to war. And the fact that both political parties have consistently refused to recognize the limits of American power is mind boggling; consequently, we commit troops once again to Asia where our track record should, at the very least, urge caution.
Thank you
Thank you for this level headed view of the Iran mess. I particularly appreciate the reminder that we have much more in common then that which separates us. If only the cats really did rule the world, we’d all be better off.
They certainly think so!
I completely agree with you!
Especially about we should exhaust all diplomatic resources first!
I pray for our military and their families!
Thank you for this.
Thank you for this thoughtful piece.
Well put. And thanks for the cat patches👍
Thank you for this, and especially for the cat information. Your commentary IMHO has always been well thought out, understandable, and trustworthy. It’s good to have the voice of reason in this increasingly insane world.
Thank you. You are a gem.
“Now we have returned to a world with not two but three superpowers, and the era of American Hegemony is ending.” I’m both glad that someone with more insight thinks this and it’s disturbing that our leadership either isn’t thinking about it or refuses to contemplate it. I can’t help but wonder if this is something like what it felt like to be the British Empire in the late 19th/early 20th Century.
Watching successive administrations fail to learn the lessons of their predecessors is depressing.
And hopefully not like standing in the Forum Romanum on 24 August 410 …
“Iran has been a complex regional problem for nearly 50 years, but so have other countries in the region. It is actually less of a source of “terrorist” ideology than at least one other country in the region that we call an ally.”
Really? So Israel is the terrorist state in your estimation? Are they the funders of Hamas and Hezbollah? Are they the ones terrorizing their people and slaughtering protestors in the streets? I think not.
Thank you for falling in to my obvious and not-very-clever rhetorical trap. I WAS TALKING ABOUT SAUDI ARABIA AND WAHHABISM! Think about that, why you responded the way you did, and why jumping to that conclusion is harmful to your cause …
I truly appreciate your brain, your insights, and all you do and have done as contribution. Thank you for serving, thank you for continuing to serve as Enki. Where would humanity be without him? Stay strong.
This whole exercise has a scent of ill-preparation to it. And I am not commenting about the strategic intelligence… it’s the lack of a “yes, but what do you want?” articulable answer (as Luke Gromen might say) and the lack of any – absolutely no – attempt to try and convince the public as to the necessity of this war. Nothing beyond “I’m the president and I get to choose who lives and who dies”. (Mike Judge seems more prescient with each passing year.)
When this goes south and becomes yet another multi-year quagmire with no good exit and the Strait still locked down, the lack of “marketing” will set up again, a situation where we have to disengage after spending money, blood, and the little remaining goodwill we have left – and achieving mostly nothing. (Apart from generational hatred from the Iraqis… but I’m sure that won’t have any consequences.)
I applaud your apolitical stance here. But I suffer from no such constraints. I have never had anything more than a passing “meh” and “what’s the alternative?” appreciation of Trump. But – at the very least – he marketed himself as a “never-warrior” as opposed to a “forever-warrior”. That I could respect. So much for that ….
But I would wear the Pizza Cat patch as a band of honor.
Iraqis –> Iranians…. same dif. 🙂
“Iraqis –> Iranians…. same dif.” Spoken like a true ‘Murican! 😛
After 47 years with little cooperation from Iran, I think we have exhausted diplomatic means. Instead of cooperation we have had voiced and acted upon aggression against our citizens and allies. I have a feeling that most former presidents who are living today wish they had the “guts” to do what Trump has done. I depend on you and thank you for accurate weather reporting, but feel this is not the place to voice your political view. Your observations about lights from space was interesting and you should have stopped there.
I’m always puzzled by replies like this. I served in combat and on diplomatic missions, as well as lived in the region, taken courses (both in person and DL) in foreign policy and religion from both Tel Aviv University and King Saud University. Who exactly should be voicing their views on this?
You stirred a few memories with this one. Fall – 2002. It’s about 10pm local time. We just made a course change South of Sicily. We’re at 43,000 ft. Our flight plan will take us just South of Cypress. We’ll make a turn over Damascus to the Southeast. It’s a straight shot down through Saudi Arabia – coast out into the Arabian Sea over Muscat – go feet dry over Mumbai, India and be on final approach to Chennai International Airport just after sunrise. You were right about the lights.
October 1973 – The Yom Kippur War in the Middle East is calling. Fort Campbell Army Airfield is vast sea of US Air Force Lockeed C-141 Starlifters. All of our aircraft, equipment and personnel are loaded aboard and waiting. The 101st Airborne is locked down and ready to go. All but a few of us are Vietnam Veterans. Every one of us have more than a few friend’s names etched into that black granite wall in Washington, DC. We had a clear objective. The Soviet Union was threatening to join the war. We would be going to stop them. Russia blinked.
The specific tactical and strategic objectives in this current war…
I’m often reminded of the Iliad, and the description of the night before battle, “And just as the stars shine bright in windless air, about the gleaming moon, and every mountain peak and glade and high headland stands out clear, and the skies reveal their infinite depths, displaying all the stars to gladden the shepherd’s heart; so, between the ships and Xanthus’ streams, the fires the Trojans lit before Troy shone in their multitude. ” I think anyone who rode a wooden ship, LST, or in the back of a Starlifter towards battle can relate.
Thank you for this clear, concise, and perceptive evaluation of what we’ve been subjected to. I couldn’t agree more. It’s very refreshing. I loved the tie in with the cats. Their presence brings a sense of peace to our everyday lives-even in conflict.
I appreciate your ability to apply your experience and your viewpoint in a fairly neutral way. I wish I could be so eloquent, but not so. I simply think we have made a very bad decision based on no strategy other than to “prove we are tougher, and they will give in, and it will be over in a few weeks”. I am not sure what bad things will come of this, but I am sure that nothing good will come of it.
Thank you!
Well put. I was a (former Parksider) a generation or so ahead of you in similar kinds of service; in our unit, Beggar the puppy and Ralph the parrot had no end of protectors and ‘worrying Aunties’ long after we had left the zone.
Thank you for your continual reliable reporting!
Good read Enki
So very grateful to have your insight.